Illustrative bet
Bet
Improve onboarding
Increase onboarding completion from 60% to 75% and improve 90-day retention from 72% to 80%.
02 / Decide
Turn evidence into a bet.
It's easy to add another idea to a roadmap. It's harder to explain why it matters and what you expect to happen.
decidest helps you make the decision explicit, connect it to the evidence, and define an outcome you can evaluate later.
Move beyond ideas and intentions.
A bet captures the decision you're making and what you expect it to accomplish.
Instead of simply saying "improve onboarding," define the change you want to make and the result you believe it will produce.
Now the team has a clear prediction to work toward and evaluate.
Every bet has a reason behind it.
Capture the evidence and assumptions that led to the decision, the prediction you're making, and the impact you expect.
The Decision
What are we going to do?
Describe the change, initiative, or action you're choosing to pursue.
The Prediction
What do we expect to happen?
Define the measurable outcome that would indicate progress or success.
The Impact
Why does it matter?
Connect the expected outcome to a meaningful customer or business result.
Connect outcomes to business value.
A metric moving in the right direction is useful. Understanding what that change means for the business is even better.
Connect your predicted outcomes to the measures that matter, whether that's retention, conversion, revenue, customer satisfaction, or reduced costs.
Illustrative example
Improved retention × customer accounts × average customer value = potential business impact.
Make the assumptions behind the calculation visible. Treat estimates as estimates, not guaranteed results.
Remember why you made the call.
Decisions lose their context as time passes and teams change.
Keep the reasoning, evidence, prediction, and expected impact connected to the bet. When the work is complete, you'll have a clear starting point for evaluating what happened.
A decision is only the beginning.
Once the bet is defined, connect it to the work required to make it happen.
The decision stays visible as the team moves from planning to delivery and eventually to measurable results.
Make the decision explicit. Then make it learnable.
Turn your next important decision into a bet you can evaluate.